T20 World Cup 2022: Are changes in the knockout format necessary to eliminate the luck factor?

It has been a thrilling ride to this point for both sets of fans, but there remains a feeling that there was an element of luck involved in both teams making it as far as they did. 

The Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method 

Rain curtailed, and usage of the Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method makes it more on luck and chance rather than on skills. Teams lost crucial points due to rain. Rain-affected matches could be replayed on the next day to make it fair, or the game in the knockout stage should be best of three to eliminate any chance of disruption or the luck on the day factor.

Toss factor

For England, their most significant luck factor was winning the toss – they got to bat under lights when the pitch had eased up even further and posed little threat to the batters. 

This brings us to a question of a change in format to the knockouts to eliminate the element of luck – and if it is necessary. 

First off, it is worth noting that it is impossible to eliminate the luck factor from outdoor sports. Sometimes you need that luck to go in your favour as a team or player. 

It might sound weird, but it is, in fact, fundamental – an element of luck is always involved in sports, and it cannot be done away with entirely, no matter how hard it is we try. 

At the same time, there is also an argument that there may be a change to the format to ensure luck plays as small a factor as possible. 

One suggestion would be to make both knockout matches a ‘best of three’ affair – and ensure that a one-off lucky result doesn’t eliminate a more deserving team. 

Another suggestion would be to adopt a ‘Super fours’ format, similar to what the Asia Cup took on this year. 

This way, teams would have to play a mini round-robin before playing the final and would need to be a consistently good team to make it to the summit clash, to begin with. 

Both of these approaches would also do something the ICC loves – generate more revenue for the game. 

Since the sport relies on broadcast revenue, the more matches that can occur, the better it is for the TV channels. 

However, there’s also an argument that the knockout format is acceptable as it is – and that it makes no sense to break what is already fixed. 

There’s also the fact that the knockouts, the way they are, add a sense of unpredictability and excitement to the tournament and gives all teams a better chance. 

Also, sport is at its finest not only when established teams win big but also when the underdogs can upset the apple cart. And that is easier in one-off knockout matches. 

It would make sense to revamp the knockout format should the ICC choose to go down that route. But things are also working fine – and should be left as it is.