Premier League: Will Erling Haaland make history at Manchester City this season?

If Haaland maintains his pace

The Citizens can dominate the ball with only ten players in possession, and then Haaland finishes with a goal. If Haaland continues to perform at the same pace, he would have scored 63 Premier League goals by the end of the season. 

Only the top four Premier League teams netted more than 63 goals in the previous season. The record for the highest number of goals across Big Five leagues in a single season is currently held by Lionel Messi, who scored 50 goals for Barcelona in 2011-12.

Haaland is cruising with an average of 1.67 goals per match. Over six games, Haaland has 6.4 expected goals, according to reports. If he continued getting the same shots and converting them at the same rate for the remainder of the season, he would exceed his expected goal total by 23 goals. 

Messi set up a record for over-performance by scoring 17 goals more than expected in 2012-13. In the Premier League, Mohamed Salah scored the highest number of goals in a 38-game season is 32 in 2017-18. 

Salah also assisted ten goals and played a crucial role in Liverpool's possession play. Salah was cruising at 32 pass attempts per game that year, while Haaland was playing just 15 passes per match. 

If Haaland plays all 38 matches

Haaland has never played more than 28 games in a domestic season, so he will probably compete in 22 more tournaments. That will add 37 more goals to his tally, and his season-long total will be 47. 

Even if his average decreases, he has a fair chance of breaking Salah's record. He could surpass Andy Cole and Alan Shearer, who both netted 34 goals when the Premier League season was 42 matches long.

Haaland's profile after his move to Premier League has improved

The average result for the 22-year-old Norwegian is expected to set up a new Premier League goal-scoring record. Haaland's shot profile has only improved after his move to England. 

Although his pace is likely to slow down mid-season, Haaland is expected to score a minimum of 33 goals, reducing his average to 0.72 from 1.67 goals per game over the remainder of the season. 

In 2021-22, Salah and Son Heung-min secured the Golden Boot with 23 goals each. Haaland is soaring high at just 22 years old, and his performance is now unlike anything observed in football before. 

He scored 25 goals in his first 20 Champions League matches, nine more than any other footballer.